When Premier Danielle Smith unveiled her proposal for an Alberta pension plan (APP) last September, I immediately thought of Brexit, and how that disastrous policy was foisted by unscrupulous politicians on a gullible 52 per cent of the British public who voted to leave the European Union.
I was in Britain on vacation for part of the Brexit fight as the “Leavers” and “Remainers” held protests and counterprotests. What stood out for me were the buses, the travelling billboards that criss-crossed the UK during the long Brexit battle. The Leavers had a red bus with the infamous pro-Brexit message: “We send the EU £350-million a week—Let’s fund our NHS instead—Vote Leave.” The Remainers had their own bright yellow bus, with a sassy declaration: “Bollocks to Brexit.”
Bollocks, by the way, is British slang for bull****. And the Leavers’ message was in fact a massive misrepresentation of the facts, if not an outright lie. But it was a bold lie, with a nice, big, clear number. And it helped push the Leave side over the top.
Post-Brexit Britain has seen high inflation, low economic growth and less investment. “Brexit has damaged the UK economy,” concludes the Centre for Economic Policy Research. Brexit did indeed turn out to be bollocks.
Polls indicate Albertans don’t like the idea of withdrawing from the CPP. Smith is out to change minds.
Smith’s venture sounds awfully like our own Brexit moment, where voters are asked to boil down a hugely complex issue to a simple “yes or no.” When the premier unveiled her pension idea, she pledged the scheme will only move forward if Albertans support it in a referendum. That referendum will only be conducted if enough of us express an interest in the idea during public discussions run by her three-person “engagement panel” headed by former finance minister Jim Dinning. (He spoke against an APP in the past but has since become a convert, calling it “an intriguing opportunity.”) Dinning expects to file a report next May, and a referendum could be held in 2025.
All of this enthusiasm was thanks to a provincial-government-commissioned report by consulting firm LifeWorks that concluded Alberta should receive $334-billion—or 53 per cent—of the Canada Pension Plan’s total assets projected for 2027. That’s a nice, big, clear number, and if Brexiteers were running Smith’s campaign they’d no doubt stick “$334-billion!” on a bright-red bus alongside “Vote to Leave the CPP.”
Rather than commission a bus, though, the government commissioned a webpage headlined “WHAT’S IN IT FOR YOU,” boldly asserting that under an APP seniors could receive a $10,000 lump-sum payment and workers would save up to $1,425 a year through lower pension contributions. It is a sales pitch trying to pretend it’s an information page.
When it comes to letting Albertans make up their own minds, Smith is not an honest broker. She’s been arguing in favour of an APP for 20 years, having written as a Calgary Herald columnist in 2003, “In the case of pensions, not only does the Alberta government have the constitutional authority to take back this responsibility, it has the obligation to do so.”
Like the Brexiteers, Smith is trying to portray her side as bolstered by hard facts and rational arguments, while anyone opposed is reacting, as she said during her news conference, “emotionally.” But her argument is the one based on emotion.
The Brexiteers had “Take Back Control”; Smith has the battle cry “More Alberta, Less Ottawa,” a slogan that’s actually part of the government’s APP webpage. It’s a well-worn phrase but misses the mark here. The CPP is funded by employers and workers across Canada, not the federal government.
Smith’s push for a provincial plan ticks off a litany of political boxes for her, including reassuring her base that she’s fulfilling a UCP leadership-race promise even though she went silent on that promise during last May’s provincial election.
Opinion polls have indicated Albertans don’t like the idea of withdrawing from the CPP. Smith’s objective is to change their minds. Standing in her way are counter opinions from experts who have poked so many holes in the LifeWorks report it’s now more confetti than paper.
Calgary-based economist Trevor Tombe, for example, released his own report on an APP, which questions the value of Alberta going it alone and figures we might get $120-billion from the CPP, not $334-billion. This would dramatically reduce Smith’s estimated savings to seniors and workers.
Michel Leduc, a senior director of the CPP Investments board, said that while provinces are free to set up their own pension funds, LifeWorks’s conclusions rely on an “invented formula” that its own report admits is based on an “alternate interpretation” of the CPP Act. “Withdrawal from the CPP would be complex, fiercely disputed, involve political posturing and would result in risk for Albertans for years to come,” he said.
It’s a statement that sounds like a polite version of “An Alberta Pension Plan is Bollocks.”
Graham Thomson is a political analyst, member of the Legislature Press Gallery and former Edmonton Journal political columnist.
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