The next Alberta election will be held on Monday, October 18, 2027, right? I mean, the United Conservative Party government even passed a law last year locking in that date. But if that’s correct, why are the chattering classes of Alberta politics speculating that premier Danielle Smith might announce an election early, perhaps as soon as the spring of 2026?
First off, premier Smith could call an election anytime she wants—today, tomorrow, next spring. She needn’t follow the election-every-four-years convention. Under our system of government all she would need to do is ask Alberta’s lieutenant governor to dissolve the legislature and direct the chief electoral officer to issue the writs of election.
Wait, you ask—what about our fixed-election-date law?
Alberta’s fixed-election-date law is an illusion, a piece of political theatre designed to evoke American-style politics. It disappears like a puff of smoke when confronted by the “reserve powers” of the province’s lieutenant governor. Here’s what Alberta’s Election Act says about a fixed election date: “Nothing in this section affects the powers of the Lieutenant Governor, including the power to dissolve the Legislature.”
The fixed-election-date law is an illusion, a piece of theatre designed to evoke American-style politics.
Think back to the 2015 provincial election. At the time, Alberta had a fixed election “period” where an election, by provincial law, was to be held sometime between March 1 and May 31, 2016. But premier Jim Prentice wanted to go one year early (arguably to avoid campaigning during a looming recession), so he simply asked the lieutenant governor to dissolve the legislature.
So, why would Danielle Smith call an early election?
Answering that question means moving from the world of misleading “fixed” election date laws to the more familiar world of cutthroat politics.
Thomas Lukaszuk, the former Progressive Conservative deputy premier who spent the fall championing the “Forever Canadian” initiative (trying to force a referendum that would ask Albertans “Do you agree that Alberta should remain in Canada?”) told me he thinks Smith will go early because the NDP is dropping in public opinion polls: “If they (the UCP) are smart,” he says, “they’ll call a very early election and win a large majority.”
Peter Guthrie voluntarily quit his cabinet portfolio in February, was kicked out of the UCP caucus in April for criticizing Smith, and is now trying to cobble together a party to challenge the UCP. He thinks Smith will call an election early next year to get ahead of problems including a ballooning budget deficit and a troubled healthcare system. He expects Smith to introduce a “good news” budget in February and “call an election in March right afterwards.”
But nobody has explained how Smith would justify going early to the public. That’s a crucial consideration. Voters tend to view early elections as a manipulative move by a desperate government trying to avoid trouble on the horizon.
Besides Jim Prentice’s snap election in 2015, Don Getty called a one-year-early election in 1989 and Ralph Klein called one five months early in 2004. None of them gave a good argument for going early. Even though Getty’s government won the election, the premier lost his own seat in Edmonton. He could only return to the legislature after winning a rural by-election. Klein’s government likewise won the election but lost 11 seats, and its popular vote dropped by 15 percentage points compared to the 2001 election.
I’m not saying that calling an early election is the sole reason all these premiers lost ground, or a seat, or their entire government. But I would argue going early was an indication they were under pressure and wanted to strike while the iron was hot, or at least still warm.
Going early, though, sometimes pays off. Ontario premier Doug Ford, deemed by one poll to be the most unpopular premier in Canada in December of 2024, called a snap election in February 2025, almost a year and a half ahead of his province’s own “fixed” election date of June 2, 2026. He won his third consecutive majority government.
Ford shrewdly made Donald Trump the ballot-box issue: “We need a mandate from the people to fight against Donald Trump’s tariffs, the attack he’s [bringing] against our families, our businesses, our communities.”
Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi suspects premier Smith just might similarly call a snap election in early 2026: “I’m not sure the premier herself knows, or her office knows. I think they’re changing their mind day-to-day, based on what they see in the wind. So we’re ready.”
As I write this, Smith continues to hold a strong grip on power, and her polling numbers are steady. I think Smith will stick to the “fixed” election date of October 18, 2027. But then again, there’s not much stickiness to a date that can so easily be unfixed.
Graham Thomson is a political analyst, member of the Legislature Press Gallery and former Edmonton Journal political columnist.
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